The fundamentals of alumina still maintain a surplus pattern, with tender prices at a discount to online prices, driving down online prices. [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 9.19

Futures:In the night session, the most-traded alumina ao2601 contract opened at 2,931 yuan/mt, hit a high of 2,938 yuan/mt and a low of 2,923 yuan/mt, and ended at 2,932 yuan/mt, up 1 yuan/mt, or 0.03%, with open interest at 323,000 lots.

Ore side:As of September 18, 2025, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $75.17/mt, down $0.27/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was at $74/mt, down $1/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was at $70/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the low-grade bauxite self pick-up price excluding VAT in Shanxi was at 605 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. Currently, domestic ore mines that suspended production earlier in north China have not resumed, and there is no expectation of a recovery in the near term. Domestic ore supply in the region remains tight, but imported supply is relatively sufficient. The overall market does not show a significant gap, and buyer sentiment to drive down prices continues, with bauxite prices edging lower. At the same time, the alumina supply surplus persists, and spot prices continue to decline. In the short term, bauxite prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

Spot prices:As of September 18, 2025, the SMM alumina index stood at 3,045.87 yuan/mt, down 4.21 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,968.45 yuan/mt, down 3.05 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 3,033.79 yuan/mt, down 4.32 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,990.75 yuan/mt, down 7.42 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 3,188.95 yuan/mt, down 8.58 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 3,178.18 yuan/mt, down 2.27 yuan/mt MoM. During the day, a tender for procurement by an aluminum plant in north China was concluded, equivalent to a Shanxi ex-works price of 2,970 yuan/mt. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to continue falling, with the pace of decline slowing.

Industry news:

• On September 18, 27,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $318/mt FOB Indonesia for October shipment.

• According to China Customs, China exported 180,000 mt of alumina in August 2025, up 26% YoY. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative alumina exports reached 1.75 million mt, up 59.8% YoY.

• According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 18.29 million mt of bauxite in August 2025, down 8.82% MoM and up 18.2% YoY. January-August 2025, China imported a total of 141.5 million mt of bauxite, up 31.40% YoY.

• According to SMM statistics on September 18, domestic alumina inventory totaled 4.199 million mt, an increase of 38,000 mt from the previous week.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:Based on SMM data, as of 11:30 on September 18, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 108.87 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract.

Warrant Daily Report:On September 18, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 904 mt from the previous trading day to 150,400 mt. In Shandong, the total registered volume of alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0. In Henan, the total registered volume of alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0. In Guangxi, the total registered volume of alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0. In Gansu, the total registered volume of alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0. In Xinjiang, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 904 mt from the previous trading day to 150,400 mt.

Overseas Market:As of September 18, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $325/mt, the ocean freight rate was $24.1/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.13. This price translated to a selling price of approximately 2,891.48 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, which was 154.39 yuan/mt lower than the SMM alumina index price, keeping the import window open. Today's transaction price decreased by $12/mt compared to the previous transaction, translating to a selling price of approximately 2,750 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, about 296 yuan/mt lower than the SMM alumina index.

Summary:Overall, the alumina market fundamentals remained in a surplus pattern. Supply side, in south China, production resumptions were completed at plants that had roasting furnaces under maintenance during the cycle, and operating capacity continued to run at high levels. The import window was open, domestic inventory remained high, and the overall domestic alumina supply surplus persisted. Demand side, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters increased slowly, tenders from aluminum plants increased, and tender prices were at a discount against the listed prices, driving down the listed prices. In the short term, spot alumina prices continued their downward trend.

[Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]